The 2021 hurricane season was officially declared as the third most active season in history. By the end of it, eight storms had reached land, and there were 21 named storms in the 2021 hurricane season.
Although the official hurricane forecasts are revealed by the start of April, a general framework has been given on what can be expected this summer.
Predicted Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in 2022
For the year 2022, several sources are looking at a slightly above-average activity level. In above-average activity seasons, there are usually 6-8 hurricanes, 13-16 named storms, and 2-3 major hurricanes, according to researchers.
CSU has predicted an ACE index of about 124 units. The ACE index measures the potential power of the tropical and subtropical storms with their length. According to the ACE index charted out by TSR, we can expect to witness 18 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes this season.
Forecasters look at the status of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and warm temperatures in the North of the Atlantic to predict the activity of hurricanes in the coming season. Here’s a detailed analysis of the forecasted hurricane activity in 2022.
The State of La Nina
Now with June 1 a few months away, we are faced with one important question in accurately predicting hurricane activity. We currently have a weak La Nina. Will it become warmer and change into El Nino closer to June? It is important to determine the entry of El Nino because the climate will tell us how much of an active hurricane season will be observed this time.
Most weather phenomena, including active hurricanes, are a result of temperatures dropping at the equatorial Pacific waters. La Nina provides more feasible atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic while the adjacent climatic condition El Nino does not let more storms and hurricanes build up.
According to the seasonal forecast of the CFS, La Nina might remain prominent throughout the whole year, but the European seasonal model has determined a moderate ENSO sometime around summer, which will linger till August. However, a point to be noted here is that the European seasonal model tends to forecast a more intense ENSO than what actually prevails.
Bringing all the possibilities together, we may see a weak La Nina continue during the hurricane season as well. If this happens, there will be a slightly above-average activity this season.
If La Nina does weaken in the first half of the hurricane season, it would lower the count of heavy storms and hurricanes as La Nina is the major factor in the promotion of Atlantic Basin Activity.
When the real hurricane season does arrive in July, August, and September, the temperature of the waters is expected to be warm enough for a neutral weather condition – with neither La Nina or El Nino as the dominant force.
El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO)
It might not seem plausible at first that temperatures of the equatorial ocean in the Eastern Pacific have any effect on the Atlantic Hurricane Season, but weather forecasters have known for a fact that fluctuations in the temperatures at the sea in this area affect the weather of the North American region.
CSU has indicated that El Nino might not be possible by summer given the currently forecasted speed at which the Pacific is warming up.
Moreover, the CanSIPS seasonal model indicated that there will be a mixture of above-average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and a neutral ENSO. If this turns out to be true, there will be an above-average season for tropical storms and hurricanes.
Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Bermuda High
AMO can have a significant impact on the hurricane season. For the past two and a half decades, the temperature of the water has been laying above average at a level in the cycle called Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation.
“A positive phase of the AMO typically leads to 3-5 times more major Atlantic Basin hurricane activity than does a negative phase,” according to the team at CSU.
AMO normally lasts for 60 years, but it can go as short as 40-50 years on the lower end or as high as 70-80 years on the upper end. As such, above-average Atlantic Basin major tropical cyclone activity is observed for 25-35 years generally, and below-average major tropical cyclone activity is seen for a similar length of time.
If the pattern of the last six seasons is to be followed, then AMO will remain positive this time too. An increased AMO is indicated by the warm temperatures of both the North Atlantic and tropical Atlantic.
A higher AMO could also indicate a Bermuda high. The Bermuda high lies between the Bermuda and Azores for the hurricane season and can cause the tropical waves, tropical storms, and hurricanes to rise or lessen, all the way from Africa to the US and the Caribbean.
A strong Bermuda high will cool down the air and water in the Atlantic Basin, and this cooling of the water oppresses the development of hurricanes.
Conclusion
What hits us in hurricanes and storms will be seen in the summer season starting from June onwards. Until then, weather predictions can be set in place. A weather forecast becomes more accurate as the actual time approaches.
AMO and ENSO are only two small parts of predicting hurricane activity. If we take the whole climate in view, these two features can have an impact on lessening or enhancing the favorable conditions for a hurricane.
While there are predictions for Atlantic hurricane activity, the exact nature of what to expect will become clearer as we approach summer. The weather conditions can be more accurately forecasted close to the season.
For now, we can expect a slightly above-average hurricane season, less harsh than last year, but not too calm.
May 2022 Hurricane Update
Forecasters are predicting the possibility of an early to mid-May tropical development. Thanks to low pressure moving down from the Great Lakes and Northeastern United States, this front when combined with hot air from the Caribbean could develop into a tropical development.
Predictions indicate that a tropical development is possible any time after May 10 through May 20, although many European forecasters believe the Western Caribbean could be hit with a tropical development at time through the end of the month.
Any development formed in the Western Caribbean will make its way north to the Bahamas, and from there, may be directed towards the Southern United States.
On the hurricane watch side, forecasters are predicting a busy hurricane season, due in part to La Nina conditions. Forecasters predict 21 named storms, with 9 of those becoming hurricanes and 4 of those being at least Category 3 hurricanes.
Support for a busy hurricane season is based in part on predicted dry conditions from an upper level high pressure ridge. This high pressure ridge would push storms eastward, causing storms more likely to hit the East Coast or the Eastern Gulf Coast area, making a large portion of the Eastern United States at risk of major hurricane devastation.
In addition to the prediction of the Midwestern high pressure ridge, is the positioning of the Eastern US Trough, which blocks high pressure from Canada and would ultimately prevent storms from heading into the Atlantic and instead force them towards the Caribbean and the Gulf Coast area.
A combination of those two factors could make this a busy hurricane season indeed. It’s never too early to prepare for hurricane season. Know that SFS is here with emergency fuel, potable water, and business continuity assistance to help you through the 2022 hurricane season.